Süper Lig late goals: nearly 1 in 4 comes after the 75th minute

Where the goals fall

We looked at five Süper Lig seasons, from 2021-22 to 2025-26, covering 1,710 matches and 4,876 goals. Splitting each match into six windows shows a clear pattern: goals become more frequent as the game goes on, with one visible jump at the start of the second half.

The 76-90+ window produced 1,157 goals, or 23.7% of the total. That is the largest share of any window, ahead of 46-60 (19.5%) and 61-75 (16.0%). The first quarter-hour is the quietest, with 12.3%. Put simply, roughly one Süper Lig goal in four is scored once the match has passed the 75th minute.

One caution on the label: the final window is not a clean 15 minutes. It also holds all second-half stoppage time, which is why we write it as 76-90+.

Stoppage time explains part of the spike

A large share is not the same as a high scoring rate. Because the last window is longer than the others, we also adjusted for the time actually played. For the four seasons from 2021-22 to 2024-25 (1,418 matches), we estimated average stoppage time at about 6.5 minutes in the second half and 3.9 in the first.

On that basis, 76-90+ accounts for 21.4% of playing time and 23.6% of goals. The scoring rate per minute is therefore only modestly higher than the share of time would suggest. In absolute terms the busiest stretch is the first quarter-hour of the second half: 3.83 goals per 100 matches per minute in 46-60, against 3.17 in 76-90+ and 3.06 in 61-75.

So the honest reading is this: late goals matter because of how many there are and what they decide, not because the final minutes are the most dangerous per minute on the clock.

Not unusual by international standards

Using the same method and the same five seasons, we compared the Süper Lig with LaLiga, the Brasileirão and the Saudi Pro League. The share of goals scored from the 76th minute on is very close in Turkey (23.7%), Spain (24.0%) and Brazil (23.7%), and somewhat higher in Saudi Arabia (25.0%).

The 95% confidence interval for Turkey runs from 22.6% to 24.9%, so the gap with Spain and Brazil is well within normal variation. Late goals are a feature of the sport in several leagues, not a Turkish peculiarity. Excluding own goals and penalties moves the Turkish figure only slightly, to 23.5%.

When late goals change the result

Comparing the score at 75:00 with the final result shows what the late goals decided. In 384 of 1,710 matches (22.5%), goals after the 75th minute changed the outcome: 220 matches that were level became a win for one side, 136 leads were reduced to a draw and 28 leads were turned into defeats. Another 290 matches stayed level.

Leading at 75:00 is still a strong position. Of 1,200 matches in which a team was ahead at that point, the leader won 1,036 (about 86%) and dropped points in 164 (136 draws and 28 defeats, about 14%). Across all teams, 660 points were gained and 576 lost through goals after the 75th minute.

At club level the numbers are small and should be read with care, since each side has at most five seasons of data. Among teams with at least 100 matches, Hatayspor (0.49 late goals conceded per match, 67 in 136), Kasımpaşa (0.46, 84 in 181) and Gaziantep (0.43, 73 in 171) conceded most often in the final stretch, against a league average of 0.338. At the other end, Fenerbahçe won a net 46 points from goals after the 75th minute (58 gained, 12 lost), ahead of Galatasaray (+27) and Samsunspor (+22 over 106 matches). Rankings like these are indicative, not conclusive.

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